Afghanistan’s Covid-19 Bargain

Battered by conflict and dependent on dwindling foreign aid, Afghanistan may have no alternative but to let the virus run its course. Yet, amid their suffering, Afghans are also finding solidarity and political initiative. This week, we interview the Foundation's Country Representative in Afghanistan Abdullah Ahmadzai on country's Covid-19 bargain. Read his InAsia blog piece: https://asiafoundation.org/2020/06/24/afghanistans-covid-19-bargain/

Transcript

John Rieger (00:00):

Welcome to In Asia, from the Asia Foundation. I'm John Rieger.

Tracy Yang (00:04):

And I'm Tracy Yang.

John Rieger (00:05):

Well, we don't have to look far to find wealthy developed nations that have bungled their chance to manage the coronavirus, but a poor and embattled country like Afghanistan has no opportunities to waste.

Tracy Yang (00:16):

With its economy dependent on dwindling foreign aid and its political system battered by conflict, Afghanistan appears to be facing COVID-19 with an empty toolkit.

John Rieger (00:26):

Abdullah Ahmadzai, the Asia Foundation's country representative in Afghanistan, has written a sympathetic and harrowing account of the country's predicament for this week's In Asia Blog and he joins us now from Kabul where it is 7:30 in the morning. Abdullah, thank you for getting up early.

Abdullah Ahmadzai (00:42):

Good evening, John. Thank you. Thank you for giving me this opportunity to speak to you.

John Rieger (00:45):

In your essay this week, you break with the usual style of third person reporting to speak of the Afghan people as we. It must be painful to see this pandemic added to your country's litany of troubles. How vulnerable is Afghanistan to COVID-19?

Abdullah Ahmadzai (01:01):

Thank you, John. Yes, exactly. When I basically speak about Afghanistan and Afghans, I refer to the country and to the people as we. For Afghans, the main issue throughout these years have been active conflict, suicide attacks, explosions, but this was something like an invisible enemy that people didn't really have a full grasp over. As soon as the news broke out about how deadly this virus is, people started spreading rumors about what might be effective in preventing it. People were promoting drinking of black tea as something that could prevent or help human bodies fight the coronavirus.

John Rieger (01:46):

Wait. Tea?

Abdullah Ahmadzai (01:47):

Black tea. It was so widely consumed in Afghanistan that the price of black tea suddenly increased by 50%. but because of desperation and the fact that our governance infrastructure is so basic that it cannot reach the whole population, awareness raising campaigns were not as effective as one would expect. So naturally people would turn to the traditional healers more than the government medical care centers (a) because the Afghan government lacks the capacity, testing capacity. And secondly, the traditional mechanisms of promoting a certain idea or concept seems to be much more effective in Afghanistan compared to modern mediums of awareness raising.

Tracy Yang (02:41):

So has the government taken any effective steps to deal with the virus? Are lockdowns a viable solution, for example?

Abdullah Ahmadzai (02:50):

I think the Afghan government did make a wise decision early in March about semi lock downs and promoting safety precautions, social distancing, and everything related to that. But obviously as in any other society, it's true that people's cooperation is a prerequisite for any government guidance to be implemented. In this case, a combination of lack of awareness and poverty really resulted in lock downs not being as effective as one would expect.

John Rieger (03:25):

How does poverty play into this as a factor?

Abdullah Ahmadzai (03:29):

When you have a virus outbreak and people need to, they're mostly rely on daily wages for them to survive otherwise, a lockdown without any subsidy or support to them for people to be able to survive would naturally result in people just continuing with the normal daily routine so that they can make a living. So I think it was out of desperation that people were unable to socially distance themselves from each other, simply because they had to go to work to survive. So poverty did play a major role, I believe.

John Rieger (04:07):

In your essay this week, you actually cite the government's own figures that show that, I think, 52% of the population lives below the poverty line and 45% live in a state of chronic food insecurity. So that's really a very tenuous position to be in to then be asked to stay home.

Abdullah Ahmadzai (04:27):

Exactly. Expecting them to stay home without really giving them the basic support for them to be able to survive, it's impossible.

Tracy Yang (04:37):

So what can Afghanistan realistically do to move forward? What is the game plan for COVID-19 in Afghanistan?

Abdullah Ahmadzai (04:46):

As we look at the situation and the way it has been handled in the last three months, it seems like there is not much of an effective measures that the Afghan government could take to flatten the curve in Afghanistan. With the situation as it stands right now, herd immunity seems to be the way forward. And as we know in developed societies, around 70% of the population have to contract the virus.

John Rieger (05:21):

70% of the population would be how many people?

Abdullah Ahmadzai (05:26):

Well, statistics in Afghanistan are always best guess because we don't really have reliable data, but it's roughly estimated that the country's population is around 35 million. So if we're talking about 70%, then it's around 24 to 25 million people that would need to contract the virus. Obviously, this costs lives, but at the end of the day, I think what can be done is to minimize its devastating impact on Afghans by all our political actors, civil society and businesses coming together, getting united with one key objective, and that is to minimize the impact of COVID-19 on Afghans in the long run.

Tracy Yang (06:12):

Abdullah, these are some extremely gloomy observations that you're making. Yet, incredibly in your essay, you do find some silver linings. So are there really reasons for optimism?

Abdullah Ahmadzai (06:25):

Well, yes. I think the silver lining here is also the fact that it has certainly played a role in our electoral disputes with our recent presidential elections. The two leading candidates had a long standing dispute that was recently resolved. And while I believe this was not necessarily on the cause of the sense of urgency needed to address the COVID-19 related issues, it certainly played a role. We also see some progress with regards to the peace stocks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. I think recently they agreed to hold their first meeting in Doha.

Abdullah Ahmadzai (07:08):

But more importantly, I think cooperation and solidarity has significantly increased in Afghanistan. And this is true across the country where the rich offers a helping hand to the poor. Recently, a media outlet called [inaudible 00:07:25] called on homeowners to basically either reduce their monthly rent during lockdown to poor tenants or completely waive the rents. A lot of homeowners responded and they were recognized and applauded for the generosity that they have shot. A private bank also announced a program under which they provided food supplies or free food supplies to poor families, 10,000 poor families.

Abdullah Ahmadzai (07:57):

The Afghan government also joined this campaign and is offering free bread across the country. So we see a sense of cooperation and coming together.

John Rieger (08:09):

It is rather heartbreaking to see how people can come together and support each other in solidarity at the same time that they're confronted by such a dire catastrophe.

Abdullah Ahmadzai (08:22):

Absolutely. It's really unfortunate. I mean, I have lost track of people really calling me and reporting family losses. The number of deaths being reported is significantly increasing. One of the other issues is the stigma around reporting. People expect communities and relatives to attend a funeral. And obviously when they disclose that the death was because of COVID-19, then not many people would attend those funerals. It's unfortunate, but a lot of these deaths really remain unreported.

Tracy Yang (09:00):

Abdullah, I was just curious what the Afghan government and maybe the international community needs to do more. What else needs to be done in your opinion?

Abdullah Ahmadzai (09:11):

I think Afghanistan cannot afford another issue on the table other than responding to COVID-19. We're dealing with declining donor support for Afghanistan. The international military presence is a gradually but surely reducing. We're now dealing with encouraging the Taliban to engage in meaningful negotiations with the Afghan state. We are dealing with a worsening economy. So there are lots of issues that all at once have come to test Afghanistan's capacity to cope with them. I think for political actors, the only priority needs to be how best they can respond to COVID-19 and minimize its impact on people's lives.

John Rieger (10:00):

Abdullah, last question. Tell us about the Asia Foundation's plans to support pandemic policymaking in Afghanistan.

Abdullah Ahmadzai (10:10):

Thank you, John, for this very good question. Obviously as the Asia Foundation, we are very well-known in Afghanistan for helping policymakers make informed decisions based on public concerns and views. So having that history in mind, we basically are planning to conduct a series of multiple surveys between July and December this year to be able to understand what people's concerns are, how the COVID-19 outbreak has affected the economy and how it has basically impacted all aspects of people's lives and then share those views and concerns with the Afghan policymakers, the donor community, and the development organizations for them to be able to make informed policy choices to respond to the pandemic in the long run.

John Rieger (11:13):

Abdullah Ahmadzai, thank you for joining us and please keep yourself and your family safe.

Abdullah Ahmadzai (11:18):

Thank you, John, stay well and safe. Thank you, Tracy.

Tracy Yang (11:21):

And that's all for our show this week. You can read Abdullah's essay right now in the In Asia Blog. Until next time, I'm Tracy Yang.

John Rieger (11:30):

And I'm John Rieger. Thanks for listening.