Survey of the Nepali People: A Barometer for Federalism?

In 2017, the people of Nepal held their first local elections in 20 years under a new federal system meant to end decades of political unrest. Is it working? A new survey gives us some tantalizing hints. https://asiafoundation.org/2021/06/23/podcast-survey-of-the-nepali-people-a-barometer-for-federalism/

Transcript

Sanju G.C (00:03):

I do harbor that sense of guarded optimism because going forward I hope things will change for the better.

John Rieger (00:11):

Reading the tea leaves after four years of federalism in Nepal. Today on In Asia from the Asia Foundation. I'm John Rieger, Tracie Yang, we'll be back with this next topic. In 2017, the people of Nepal elected their first local governments in 20 years under a new federal system that leaders hope would put an end to decades of political turmoil and unrest. Is it working? A new survey gives us some tantalizing hints. Joining me now are Bishnu Adhikari and Sanju G.C. He's the Asia Foundation's Director of Governance Programs in Nepal, and she's an associate there in our Monitoring Evaluation Research and Learning Unit. That's a long name. Bishnu and Sanju, welcome to In Asia.

Bishnu Adhikari (00:54):

Thank you John for having me.

Sanju G.C (00:56):

Thanks John.

John Rieger (00:57):

Sanju, your essay in this week's blog draws some encouraging conclusions about Nepal's four-year-old experiment with federalism, by looking at new data from the Asia Foundation's latest survey of the Nepali people. We're going to talk about that, but first Bishnu, Nepal's system of governance has gone through one upheaval after another, in the last 70 years or so from parliamentary democracy to absolute monarchy, to communist insurgency, with a big helping of gridlock along the way. Can you give us a quick sketch of where Nepal is now and the recent history that got it there?

Bishnu Adhikari (01:32):

Thank you John for really great question. In the last half a century or so the country experimented these different systems that you just noted almost in a span of about a decade. It was only in that decade our people started to assert themselves about their rights and inequalities. And the next 10 years, we had a quite active conflict laid by the Maoists.

John Rieger (01:59):

That was the 10 year Maoist insurgency that ended with the comprehensive peace accord in 2006.

Bishnu Adhikari (02:05):

The Comprehensive Peace Accord actually laid the foundation for the current federalism governance system that was introduced by the new constitution in 2015. Though, comparatively it could be considered a pretty broad political settlement, we still have quite a lot of political forces vehemently opposing it. So that's where we are.

John Rieger (02:34):

So, the current Federalist System and in Nepal was only established in 2015. And in fact, the first elections under that system were just four years ago and in 2017. So it's a very new plan. What are its virtues? What are the virtues of federalism and what kind of problems was it supposed to solve or address?

Bishnu Adhikari (02:56):

There are quite a few, but the first and foremost is enshrined and the Constitution's preamble. It is to address the longstanding ethnic geographical disparities that we hate because of the Unitary System and how the nation building process took place the last two centuries. So the key tenets of this federalism is to devolve central function to the local level. So the local governments are able to meet those expectations and negotiate those political issues at the local level and be able to be more responsive.

John Rieger (03:43):

Nepal is a very traditional culture, and it's a complex one. There are more than a hundred different nationalities, I think if I've got that right, and there are an equivalent number of mother tongues. A system that increases local control and local voice could be a source of conflict and disunity as well as a source of unity. Could it not? It seems like a big gamble.

Bishnu Adhikari (04:05):

It is, however, as the power is divided the local level, as the resources are transferred more effectively at the local level. Those issues could be identified, negotiated, deliberated, and an amicable solutions could be identified at the local level. So that's the SP race [inaudible 00:04:31]

John Rieger (04:30):

Sanju turning to you. In this week's blog, you've looked at the progress of federalism through the lens of the foundation's latest survey of the Nepali. People. Tell us a bit about the survey. What is it, and what does it do?

Sanju G.C (04:42):

A survey of the Nepali people is a public opinion survey. It documents Nepali's perception on a number of issues that are both public and personal significance, such as good governance, economic outlook, personal security, dispute resolution, identity and social relations, as well as the overall public outlook and national mood for the country. So, this survey was first carried out in 2017, just after the nation saw local elections take place after some 20 years. Since then, we've had two more iterations of the survey. And 2020 is the latest one.

John Rieger (05:18):

So this is in many ways a standard issue, public opinion survey, and yet you've drawn some intriguing conclusions, or perhaps we should call them hypotheses about the progress of federalism in Nepal. Why don't we take a look at a couple of the different categories? Let's start with the national mood. You say that federalism has been gaining traction in the popular consciousness. Why do you suggest that?

Sanju G.C (05:41):

So, if we look at the data in 2017 and 2018, almost half the respondents around 50% of the people responded saying that they think the country was headed in the right direction, but in 2020, we see a number almost two thirds. So I think this gives us an inkling of how federalism is slowly gaining traction among public's consciousness.

John Rieger (06:07):

These numbers are actually quite dramatic. 52.7% in 2017 felt that the country was moving in the right direction. But in 2020, 65.6%. Now you're up to two thirds. That is a very impressive, and I guess you'd have to call it a gratifying gain in public confidence.

Sanju G.C (06:28):

During the course of the last four years, I think people have had the time to observe what federalism is. And over those years, I think people are more trusting towards the federal structure. So I think over the time that trust building has taken place.

John Rieger (06:43):

Alright, let's turn to another category and this is a tough one. We already talked about the cultural diversity of Nepal and what we call cultural diversity has been a real point of friction throughout Asia for a long time. And continuing onto the present. Under the category of gender identity and social relations you find that the public believes inter group relations are improving.

Sanju G.C (07:11):

Yes, that's correct John. In 2017, almost 59% of the people thought that the relationship between diverse people were improving, whereas in 2020, it's almost 70%.

John Rieger (07:22):

One of the most interesting data points in the survey is the rising share of Nepalis who believe that the federal restructuring has improved the delivery of services.

Sanju G.C (07:33):

Yes. So if you look at the trends for the past three years, when people are asked about service delivery, they seem to be satisfied with the way local governments have been responsive to their needs. And over the years, you can see that trend has only been increasing. So people see that the local governments are there, they are catering to their needs and priorities it's visible and the system is working. And also when asked about the three tiers of government, people feel like the local governments are most responsive and they've been catering to people's needs.

John Rieger (08:08):

Sanju. You remark at the end of your essay that Nepal's federal restructuring, can't be understood in one simplistic narrative and certainly drawing inferences of causality from a survey instrument like this one is something we're always warned against. Bishnu, I wonder if perhaps things are not as rosy as they might appear, and they could go south at a moment's notice.

Bishnu Adhikari (08:32):

I agree. The first three years been quite positive and we were quite optimistic, quite hopeful. However, that was right at the onset of the COVID. Since then the country heads insistent and political wrangling that has to come down to the provincial level and also started secretly affecting at the local level. So we have started to see whether the system is going to endure or not.

John Rieger (09:03):

Sanju, would you describe yourself as guardedly optimistic?

Tracy Ang (09:07):

Yes, I do harbor that sense of guarded optimism because going forward, I hope things will change for the better but, it's more of a cautious guarded optimism for sure.

John Rieger (09:19):

The Asia Foundation Bishnu Adhikari and Sanju G.C. Thank you both for joining us today.

Bishnu Adhikari (09:24):

Thank you for opportunity. It was lovely having this conversation John.

Sanju G.C (09:29):

Thank you, John. It was lovely talking to you.

John Rieger (09:32):

And that's our show. Read Sanju's essay in this week's blog, it's got a lot more information in it. And while you're there, subscribe to this excellent podcast. Tracy will be back next week. You know she's in Cancun. Until next time, I'm John Rieger. Thanks for listening.