Political Unrest Unsettles Myanmar’s Borderlands

When the Myanmar military reclaimed power in February after a decade of democratic government, it disrupted the delicate peace process with Myanmar’s ethnic armed organizations, and the situation is still unfolding. https://asiafoundation.org/2021/07/21/podcast-political-unrest-unsettles-myanmars-borderlands/

Transcript

Tabea Campbell Pauli (00:02):

This political upheaval has resulted in all of the implicit agreements reduced to nothing, and the political ground on which everyone stands suddenly became very unstable.

John Rieger (00:14):

The return of military rule in Myanmar is rearranging the political chess board in some unexpected ways, today on InAsia, from the Asia Foundation. I'm John Rieger.

Tracie Yang (00:24):

And I'm Tracie Yang. On February 1st, Myanmar awoke to the news that the military had retaken power, ousting the government of the National League for Democracy and jailing many of its leaders, but the political realignment has also overturned the existing order of the country's decades-long internal conflicts, and the effect on fragile peace-building efforts is still unfolding.

John Rieger (00:47):

Joining us now to talk about these events and what the future may hold for this complex multi-ethnic state is Tabea Campbell Pauli. She's a senior program officer with the Asia Foundation's Conflict and Fragility Unit. Tabea, welcome to InAsia.

Tabea Campbell Pauli (01:01):

Hi, thanks very much for having me.

Tracie Yang (01:03):

So, Tabea, an essay in this week's InAsia blog by a Myanmar political analysts speaks of a remarkable realignment taking place in that country since the upheaval in early February. Who are the players in this drama?

Tabea Campbell Pauli (01:18):

Myanmar's political landscape is made up of an incredible diversity of actors. And the key ones that are involved in this most recent period of turmoil are on the one hand government actors from across the whole spectrum of Myanmar's political parties. So that includes the National League for Democracy, Aung San Suu Kyi's party, which was recently ousted from its position in government, all the way to the USDP, which is the military-aligned main party in parliament. But we've also got a number of other groups involved. The main one that I would want to mention first of all would be the Civil Society Network in Myanmar, from urban-dwelling, Burma ethnic majority representatives, all the way to ethnic minority communities who live more in the border areas, there's a high level of political engagement across the board. We've also got, of course, Myanmar's military, which is known as the Tatmadaw, the leaders of which have recently taken control of the country's governmental institutions.

Tabea Campbell Pauli (02:21):

And at the same time, they are still engaged in decades-old conflicts in many of the border areas of the country. Involved in those conflicts tend to be ethnic armed organizations. These fall into two main categories, those who have signed ceasefires and peace agreements with the government and the Tatmadaw, and those who have not, and who are still in situations of direct military engagement right now.

John Rieger (02:50):

Tabea, when you speak of ethnic armed organizations and other armed groups, this is part of a history of political turbulence in Myanmar that really goes back almost to the founding of the independent nation. How do things look different this time? How have recent events rearranged the pieces on the chess board?

Tabea Campbell Pauli (03:10):

There are a few things that make this situation very different from those that have come before. Myanmar has just had almost a decade of a quasi-democratic system of government, and many people are unwilling to accept the military's takeover of government and would like to see a return to the democratic systems that they'd seen so far. We can also talk about the fact that Myanmar has just come out of a period of pretty much unprecedented economic development, and this political upheaval that we've seen has undone a lot of this progress. Then another point that's really important to make that I think has got many onlookers very excited has been the role that social media and the connectivity through the internet has played. Particularly, we've seen a lot more involvement of young people, even teenagers than in previous moments of upheaval.

Tabea Campbell Pauli (04:04):

And then the final point that I think is really important to make is that the public discussions that many civil society actors have been engaging with since February have started to go beyond just demands for the restoration of the National League for Democracy government, and have really started to touch on much deeper issues that have persisted since Myanmar's independence. And many of these discussions of being driven by ethnic-minority communities. So this moment has provided an opportunity for many in Myanmar to have greater reflection around, and understanding around the persecution that many ethnic and religious-minority communities, including the Rohingya have experienced in the past.

John Rieger (04:51):

Let's talk about the long process centered on the national ceasefire agreement. How have recent events changed the state of play in the peace process?

Tabea Campbell Pauli (05:01):

It's been quite interesting because the NCA has been the cornerstone of the government's peace-building agenda. However, the situation between the ethnic armed organizations has continued to be an insignificant flux since that first moment of change in February, and particularly between those groups that have signed the ceasefire and those who have not. Many parts of civil society in Myanmar have expressed a strong desire to see greater unity and coming together of armed groups across the whole spectrum, because they could represent a really important counterweight to the powerful military. In the meantime, the political turmoil is resulting in further instability, particularly in areas that are already contested and conflict effected. So mainly in Myanmar's borderlands, because both the military and the armed groups are scrambling to consolidate their territory and resources. And there are high risks associated with that instability that can result in violence and displacement, loss of land and income for the communities that live there.

John Rieger (06:09):

Just to follow up on this point, of these many ethnic armed organizations, some joined the national ceasefire agreement and made a bet on a cessation of hostilities, others kept their armies, who made the right bet?

Tabea Campbell Pauli (06:26):

That's the million dollar question that I think many are asking right now. There are a few of these groups, both within the camp that have signed the ceasefire, and outside of it, that do have sufficient resources and troops to actually provide some kind of counterweight to the military. So within the camp of the ceasefire signatories, we have the Karen National Union, which is a really significant political and armed actor in the Southeast of the country. They initially were seeking to figure out how they could have stability within their political agreements and processes that they had committed to, but when widespread protests began in territories that the KNU controls and the military was looking to control those social movements, the armed group was playing a very important role in providing protection and security for its communities. And this then made it difficult to continue their dialogue and their negotiations with the military.

Tabea Campbell Pauli (07:31):

But then at the same time, we've seen in the North of the country, where many of the most powerful non-state armed groups have their territories, such as the Kachin Independence Army, which is the group that we write about in the article. They have found that this political upheaval has resulted in all of the implicit agreements reduced to nothing, and the political ground on which everyone stands suddenly became very unstable. So this did in some ways provide them opportunities to quickly retake territories that had been lost in previous conflicts, or try and consolidate their control over key resource-extraction areas that are important revenue-raising opportunities for them. But then there has also been much higher risk to the communities that live in those areas, as the military doesn't currently have a ceasefire in place, and there are no conditions on which these communities can progress forward in peaceful dialogue.

Tracie Yang (08:36):

So, Tabea, Myanmar has borders with India, China, Laos, Thailand, and Bangladesh. And it's precisely these borderlands where Myanmar's ethnic minorities are mostly concentrated. How are these borderlands affected by the recent turmoil, and how does that differ from the center of the country?

Tabea Campbell Pauli (08:57):

Yeah, so this moment of political change has been a real reminder I think, that communities in border areas can experience this kind of conflict and turmoil very differently than those that live in the center where governance, institutions and mechanisms tend to be a bit stronger. In Myanmar, many of the communities that live in the borderlands rely on primary industries as the key sources of income. And these are often affected immediately when conflict spikes in the areas. So an example would be farmers that would be cut off from supply chains in the rest of the country and unable to sell their goods, or traders who aren't able to access markets if infrastructure is destroyed. But then also we can see that there is a high risk of limited aid and support for those who might have lost income or lost land. And some of the strategies that these communities may engage in to get through these difficult patches could involve elicit activity, which can then further isolate the local economies.

Tabea Campbell Pauli (10:07):

On the other hand, the proximity to the border can also provide opportunities such as rapid migration to safer areas, or access to more stable markets and trading opportunities that are unaffected by conflict. So this is a dynamic that we have seen in the past with a mass influx of Rohingya community members from Myanmar into Bangladesh when they were fleeing violence in 2017. It's really important to recognize the particularity of how conflict is experienced between border areas and more central areas. And this is really the main focus of what our project is trying to achieve.

John Rieger (10:51):

The Asia Foundation's Tabea Campbell Pauli. Thank you for joining us today.

Tabea Campbell Pauli (10:54):

Thank you so much.

Tracie Yang (10:55):

And that's our show for this week. You can read more about these fascinating developments in Myanmar in this week's InAsia blog, it's very good information.

John Rieger (11:05):

And while you're there, and I feel like I've said this before, why not subscribe to the InAsia podcast? Seriously, why not? Why not subscribe? Until next time, I'm John Rieger.

Tracie Yang (11:14):

And I'm Tracie Yang.

John Rieger (11:16):

Thanks for listening.