Rethinking America’s Role in Asia

A task force of Asian scholars has developed strategic recommendations for the Biden administration on foreign policy towards Asia. Join us in our discussion with report co-chairs Dr. Kirida  Bhaopichtr of the Thailand Development Research Institute, and Dr. C Raja Mohan of the National University of Singapore, and The Asia Foundation's Senior Director of International Relations, John Brandon.  Read the full report: https://asiafoundation.org/publication/asian-voices-on-the-future-of-u-s-asia-relations/

Transcript

C. Raja Mohan (00:02):

Just as the US has changed, so has China. So, I think Asia finds itself with a profoundly changed America as well as a rapidly changing China and I think that's where the challenges are.

John Rieger (00:13):

As the Biden administration eyes the foreign policy chessboard, a special report from The Asia Foundation provides a concise yet comprehensive look at the challenges and opportunities facing the United States in Asia. This week on In Asia, from The Asia Foundation, I'm John Rieger-

Tracie Yang (00:30):

And I'm Tracie Yang. The special report, Asian Voices on the Future of the Unites States Asian Relations offers strategic recommendations for the Biden administration from a task force of Asian experts.

John Rieger (00:42):

And we are joined now by two of those experts, task force co-chairs Doctor Kirida Bhaopichitr and Doctor C. Raja Mohan. She is the director of economic intelligence services for the Thailand Development Research Institute and he is director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore. Also with us, is our own John Brandon who midwifed the project for The Asia Foundation. Welcome to the show everyone.

Kirida Bhaopichitr (01:07):

Hello

C. Raja Mohan (01:07):

Thank you.

John Brandon (01:08):

Thank you, nice to be here.

Tracie Yang (01:09):

So, just to get our bearings, John Brandon, why don't you start us off with an overview of this project. What is it for and how is it structured?

John Brandon (01:18):

Well, this project began earlier this year. We brought together people from 10 different Asian countries to talk about challenges facing the Asia-Pacific such as US China's strategic competition, alliances, technology, democracy promotion. We, uh, will be releasing the report on, uh, September 30th. And, uh, in addition to our co-chairs, we also had Ambassador [Han Seung-gyu 00:01:42] from South Korea, a former foreign minister of South Korea and chairman of the ASEAN Institute serve as the reports chair.

John Rieger (01:49):

It's a fascinating report. I would describe the Asian view of the United States presented in this report as perplexed. What are some of the causes of this perplexity in Asia? Maybe, uh, maybe Kirida you'd like to address that?

Kirida Bhaopichitr (02:01):

Sure, thank you John. I think one of the main things that had caused the perplexity is the fact that the US's policy on, especially trade and production, has changed over the past few years. When President Trump became the Government we had signals from the US that the US will probably step, um, it's role on world trade down. It will not join the TPP, The Trans Pacific Partnership, and it will also try to shorten it's supply chains, meaning that it won't produce as much in Asia but would rather produce in the US or in countries nearby the US. That caused some perplexity but when the Biden administration came out, it seems that the mood and tone has changed. So, you know, we're still trying to see where that would head. Would there be more trade with Asia or would there be more investments with Asia? I think that's where the main perplexity came from in, from the economics perspective.

Tracie Yang (03:08):

Of course, um, things are changing not just in the United States but also in China. Um, so what new uncertainties or opportunities has China added to the calculus of Americas role in Asia.

C. Raja Mohan (03:23):

Yeah, I think, just as US has changed, so has China. I mean, uh, I think there is, uh, certainly after 2008 when it looked like the west was in, uh, serious trouble, uh, the Chinese made an assessment that the, uh, the US was on decline, uh, and that, the time had come for China to be, you know, uh, it's, reclaim it's natural greatness, uh, in the heart of Asia. Uh, and the sense that, uh, they had now the power to pursue a set of policies that are more in tune with their own global aspirations or the Chinese dream, if you will. So, the Chinese feel, rightly, the moment has come given the extraordinary progress they have made.

C. Raja Mohan (04:03):

The second aspect of the, of the Chinese policy has been much like the US. They too are moving towards emphasizing domestic capabilities, strengthening itself internally. So, I think Asia finds itself with a profoundly changed America as well as a rapidly changing China and I think that's where the challenges are.

John Rieger (04:22):

Let's talk about some other dimensions of US relations with Asia that have also become problematic. Uh, we have what I like to call globalization and it's discontents and we also have growing conflict in the area of technology like who will build the infrastructure and control the standards for things like 5G and 6G?

Kirida Bhaopichitr (04:40):

Because of China's aspirations to go global, it has started many initiatives that has actually provided some alternatives to, um, Asia in terms of it's relationship with the US. Uh, for example, China has it's Belt and Road Initiative and China's stands on trade is, has been quite clear over the past few years that they do support, um, globalization of trade. The US and China is also on a technology race at the moment, whether it be artificial intelligence, you know, it be Blockchains, it be quantum computing. For those who actually, um, manufacture or produce the technology, they are being pressured by the US not to, um, sell their, uh, parts and components to China, especially for the high tech products such as advanced semiconductors. And, it will probably expand beyond just semiconductors, um, we might need to choose whether we use, um, the US's 6G or China's 6G. That's where I see some of the nervousness there is in Asia because we don't know where this is heading.

John Rieger (05:49):

Raja Mohan?

C. Raja Mohan (05:50):

On the globalization issue, I think part of the problem is the terms of those globalization. Uh, there is a sense that the globalization has worked in favor of China. That the massive trade deficits have actually hollowed out domestic manufacturing, like for example, in India, one of the reasons why it stepped out of the regional, uh, free trade agreement. So that's one part.

C. Raja Mohan (06:13):

Second, I think the Chinese control over critical elements of the supply chain that people feel that this dependence is politically not acceptable. That the China is weaponizing the interdependencies that were produce by globalization. Therefor, there is a political logic to decouple, to reduce the exposure to- to China, so I think that is the argument there. I think India, for example, perhaps is closer to the US than the rest of South East Asia. [inaudible 00:06:40] actually benefits in further integration with China but there is a rupture in that narrative that globalization benefits everyone.

Tracie Yang (06:48):

So then Raja, um, China's militarization of the shared waters of the South China Sea has been a challenge to the international rule based order, as the US likes to put it, and it's happening in the home waters of a few ASEAN States. Um, it's a complicated question but how has this affected diplomatic alignments in the region?

C. Raja Mohan (07:12):

Look, I think the region is not united. Those who are affected by Chinese, uh, shall we say, territorial expansions in South China Sea, are feel the problem far more strongly. So therefor, Vietnam and the Philippines are face a lot more heat, while the rest of the region is not as affected. Uh, so I think some parts of Asia see it's better to band wagon with China, while some parts of Asia, like Japan or India, are now increasingly hostile I see? Balancing China is critical.

Tracie Yang (07:40):

So what has that done to ASEAN centrality? Cause that's something that they hold quite, in their, in their corner when dealing with China and the US.

C. Raja Mohan (07:48):

The US has always seen ASEAN as a, not an effective organization. They see ASEAN not responding rigorously enough to Chinese assertions. Therefor, they need to look for alternative arrangements like the Quad, uh, which is a quadrilateral forum with Australia, Japan, and, uh, and India. Uh, everyone is going to be of service to ASEAN centrality. But look, ASEAN is not in a position to challenge China. Therefor, the Quad and the Aukus recently we saw, will be new alignments that say, "Look, we have to find ways of dealing with the Chinese military power." So I think that is beginning to unfold.

John Rieger (08:27):

Since you've mentioned the Aukus, the United States are going to sell nuclear attack subs to Australia. Will the Aukus deal be viewed as a, as a constructive move in Asia?

C. Raja Mohan (08:38):

I think, there- there is a gained reaction in the region is mixed toward the Aukus. Now some countries, like Japan or India or- or say someone like Vietnam, perhaps, might see a more vigorous presence of, uh, the US and it's partners will provide some balance. But the others, I mean Indonesia for example, has said, uh, "This is the lead to an arms race," uh, "This is dangerous," and that, "We don't want to get caught in a new cold war." I think now, the relative harmony between US, China, and Japan are producing a reasonable amend. But that amendment is breaking down, uh, amidst the rise of China and this was bound to have some military consequences.

Tracie Yang (09:20):

Well finally, we have to mention the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Has this caused any uncertainty in Asia about US judgment or resolve?

C. Raja Mohan (09:31):

I think the manner of, uh, US withdrawal from Afghanistan has raised a lot of questions about American competence, it's credibility, but, uh, looking at deep, uh, more deeply at the US decision making behind the withdrawal, one part of it is that the US is going to pay more attention to the Indo-Pacific that is the challenges post by China. Or for countries like Japan, for Vietnam, for India, for example, a greater attention to the Indo-Pacific will also be welcome. But, my senses are if the US is stable and steady now in terms of how it deals with the larger issues in Asia, there will be less concern about American credibility and the sustainability of American current policies.

John Rieger (10:13):

The new task force report is Asian Voices on the Future of Unites States Asia Relations and you can read more about it and find the link to the report in this weeks blog. Task force co-chairs Doctor Kirida Bhaopichitr and Doctor C. Raja Mohan and the Asia Foundations John Brandon, thank you all for joining us to talk about it.

John Brandon (10:31):

Thank you.

Kirida Bhaopichitr (10:31):

Thank you.

C. Raja Mohan (10:31):

Thank you for having us.

Tracie Yang (10:34):

And that's our show for this week. While you're visiting us on the web to learn more, don't forget to subscribe to our podcast. Your friends will admire your intellectual attainments. Until next time, I'm Tracie Yang-

John Rieger (10:46):

And I'm John Rieger.

Tracie Yang (10:47):

Thanks for listening.